Prelude to Ottoman Decline Consciousness: Monetary Turbulence at the end of the Sixteenth Century and the Intellectual Response

Abstract

The first section of this bipartite essay deals with different approaches to the mon- etary turbulence experienced in the Ottoman world in the late-16th century.  Com-bining “real” economic factors with the “quantity theory of money,” it underlines population  growth  and  the  velocity  of  circulation  as  well  as  structural  aspects  of Ottoman  trade  balances  vis-a-vis  the  west  and  the  east. The  focus  of  the  second section  is  on  the  observations  and  analyses  of  authors  from  the  Ottoman  ruling elite with respect to monetary and price movements. Ottoman statesmen and intel- lectuals were sharply concerned with these developments, discussed and analyzed them, and proposed measures.   With monetary stability as its core concern, their perspective emphasized the role of political authority and evaluated the problem in terms of its consequences in the realm of social balances. It was accompanied by an anxiety about “deterioration” replacing “order,” and about established hierarchies be- ing toppled, in the face of the autonomy gained by certain dynamics, which we now consider to be in the sphere of  “the economy.” The threat to order posed by price hikes and the erosion of the system of price controls cannot be met but by bringing stability to the currency. In that context, and in order to support Cigalazade Sinan Pasha’s  currency  reform, Taşköprülüzâde  Kemâlüddîn  Mehmed  Efendi  translated Makrîzî’s 15th-century text on monetary crises in Egyptian history and added an appendix with his original analysis of Ottoman circumstances.